(Oct. 16) Black voting rights are not really at risk
The Supreme Court should change its long-flawed interpretation of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
Before we start — Yes, I get it: Any time anyone talks about changing how the VRA is applied, Black people and other minorities fear the worst. This nation’s history of voting barriers against Black people was abominable until Congress passed the VRA. People of goodwill understandably are skeptical of altering the VRA’s application.
Still, the fears are misplaced: Copious evidence indicates that the ability of Black people to win public office likely will not be diminished if the Supreme Court reinterprets Article 2…. [The full column is at this link.]
(Nov. 9) Prediction: Redistricting case will end in middle ground
When the Supreme Court rules, probably in December, on the controversial congressional redistricting case of Louisiana v. Callais, the likelihood is that neither side’s fondest dreams or worst fears will be realized.
A close reading of the record leads me to predict the court will find a middle ground: It almost certainly will throw out Louisiana’s current district configurations, but without much material change in its existing interpretation of the Voting Rights Act.
Louisiana surely will need to redraw its maps yet again — but still with a strong expectation that it should create a second Black-majority (or strong plurality) district, and without sending a host of other states into new maps undoing their own Black “opportunity districts” (as they technically are called). The difference will be that Louisiana’s new map should have districts that are more geographically compact and less blatantly racially motivated than the current districts that were created for the 2024 House elections.
To make clear: This is not how I think the court should rule, but how I predict it actually will…. Justice Amy Coney Barrett, though, is loath to overturn what she called a “40-year precedent.”… She could provide the needed fifth vote to throw out the specific districts Louisiana has now, but still maintain a five-person majority, saying that some race-based districts remain necessary…. Section 2 as liberals interpret it would be saved, but Louisiana’s legislators would have to create a different new Black opportunity district — one that actually makes sense on a map, rather than looking like a pterodactyl chasing E.T…. [The full column is at this link.]
