Say hello to President…. Walz? Really?

No, this is not a prediction. And it’s not a likelihood. But it would result from a scenario that is definitely imaginable without making any crazy assumptions.

Here’s how. If all states but the seven “battleground” ones vote as expected, and if Republican Donald Trump carries Georgia (I bet he does), Pennsylvania (I bet he does), and Michigan (an absolute toss-up), that would get him to 269 electoral votes. If bad Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake drags Trump down to a small loss in Arizona while horrible GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson does the same to him in North Carolina, both eminently possible, while the Democratic-union machine in Nevada finagles a close win for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris there and Wisconsin’s well-organized Democratic turnout effort gives that toss-up state to her as well, then she would also have 269 electoral votes.

According to the 12th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, that tie would send the presidential race to the House. The House would vote not by individual member but by state. If a state’s delegation is tied, the state gets no vote until the tie is broken. Because a majority of all states, not just voting states, is required to win, it takes 26 state delegations to elect a president, even if several states can’t vote at all.

Today’s House features exactly 26 states with Republican-majority delegations. It is the newly elected House, though, not the current one, that will vote in January. Redistricting in North Carolina is expected to give a GOP majority after these elections, so that makes 27. But Montana, with two Republicans, could see a shift if vulnerable incumbent Ryan Zinke loses a small current lead. A 1-1 split there would drop GOP strength back down to 26 states. Then, there is Arizona, which has a delegation with six Republicans and three Democrats right now. Two of those Republicans, though, are in tight districts. If they, like Trump, are dragged down by Lake and both lose, that would give Democrats a 5-4 Arizona majority. Presto: If all the other states retain their current makeups, that would give the GOP only 25 states, with the other 25 being a mix of Democratic-majority states or states with tied delegations…. [For the rest of this interesting but sorta scary “what if” column, please follow this link.]